Iraq's Barzani isolated by his drive for Kurdish independence

He organized the September 25 referendum in the autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq with much fanfare, despite domestic and international objections, AFP reported.

But analysts say he miscalculated.

Weeks after the vote, central government forces launched a sweeping operation, reclaiming territory and oil fields in and around the province of Kirkuk from Kurdish peshmerga forces.

The loss of the oil fields, which provided income that would have been critical to an independent Kurdish state, sparked recriminations among Kurds.

Iraqi President Fuad Masum, a Kurdish member of a party long at odds with Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) who supported a UN-backed push for dialogue, said the independence referendum triggered the assault on Kirkuk.

Iraqi Kurdistan’s main opposition party, Goran, has called for talks with Baghdad and demanded that Barzani and his deputy Kosrat Rasul resign, saying they “no longer have any legitimacy”.

“The KDP is isolated within Kurdistan itself, in Iraq, regionally and increasingly internationally,” said Kirk Sowell, analyst and publisher of Inside Iraqi Politics.

Sowell said that faced with staunch opposition both from Goran and from longtime rival the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, the KDP’s “only hope is that Baghdad overreaches and loses international support”.

But he warned that the KDP “doesn’t have much leverage left” in negotiations.

The United States opposed the non-binding referendum, as did several nations including Iraq’s neighbors Iran and Turkey.

Iraq’s supreme court ruled that the vote was unconstitutional.

Barzani, who saw a “yes” vote as a step closer towards the cherished dream of Kurdish statehood, campaigned relentlessly prior to the referendum but has since slipped out of view.

On September 26, a day after the vote, he urged Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to begin talks on the issues dividing them, but the two sides remain wide apart.

Abadi has vowed to keep Iraqi unity intact and world powers appear to support his view.

“Barzani will now have to reconsider his maximalist attitude and reopen channels of negotiation,” Karim Bitar of the Paris-based Institute of International and Strategic Affairs told AFP.

“The United States and the entire international community, with the notable exception of Israel, remains committed and attached to Iraq’s unity and territorial integrity,” he said.

The son of iconic Kurdish nationalist leader Mulla Mustafa Barzani and head of the KDP since 1979, Barzani has long been the face of demands for Kurdish self-determination.

Kurdish affairs analyst Mutlu Civiroglu said the independence vote backfired and isolated Barzani because the Kurdish leader “misinterpreted” messages from Washington and Ankara.