{"id":2809,"date":"2018-08-10T20:58:42","date_gmt":"2018-08-10T20:58:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/madaresharghi.com\/?p=2809"},"modified":"2018-08-13T22:34:31","modified_gmt":"2018-08-13T22:34:31","slug":"us-forecasts-50-cut-in-iran-oil-sales-missing-goal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/us-forecasts-50-cut-in-iran-oil-sales-missing-goal\/","title":{"rendered":"US forecasts 50% cut in Iran oil sales, missing goal"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/madaresharghi.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/hj-300x168.jpg\" alt=\"oil\" width=\"300\" height=\"168\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-2810\" \n\nThe Trump administration forecasts that it will persuade countries to cut Iranian oil imports by as much as one million barrels a day when it reimposes energy sanctions in early November, according to two people familiar with the administration\u2019s efforts to choke off Tehran\u2019s crude sales.\n\nThe assessment forecasts a range of likely cuts of 700,000 to one million barrels a day \u2014 a significant reduction for Iran but short of the announced US goal of halting all sales of Iranian crude. Iran exported an average of about 2.1 million barrels of oil per day over the last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.\nThe US sanctions come after President Donald Trump announced in May that he was withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal that lifted many sanctions on Iran in exchange for new restrictions on the country\u2019s nuclear program. In July, Brian Hook, the official who has led the administration\u2019s efforts to persuade countries to stop buying Iranian oil, said the goal was \u2018reducing to zero\u2019 Iran\u2019s revenue from sales of crude.\nAt the same time, the administration\u2019s unannounced estimate is in line with what analysts have forecast. When sanctions were at their most stringent before the Obama administration eased most restrictions under the six-nation deal with Iran, about 1.2 million barrels of Iranian oil were taken off the global market.\nBut they note that the Obama administration achieved that reduction in sales over time \u2014 and with the support of European allies who oppose Trump\u2019s decision to quit the deal and reimpose the sanctions. The expectation is that the November 4 deadline is really just the start of a longer negotiating process as the US looks to further squeeze Iran.\n\u201cThe reality of the equation is that neither the US nor the other sides want to give anything away that they can retain as leverage in the next round,\u201d said Kevin Book, managing director of Washington-based consultancy ClearView Energy Partners.\nWhile the US has persuaded staunch allies including Japan and South Korea to cut back on imports, it has had more trouble with countries such as China and India, which account for about 50 percent of Iran\u2019s oil exports.\nLast month, Chinese officials told a delegation of State Department officials that the country wouldn\u2019t cut Iranian oil imports, according to two people familiar with the matter.\nPompeo may have a chance to directly press Indian officials to cut their purchases when he travels there with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis for meetings in early September.\nThe State Department declined to confirm the oil forecast publicly. But a department official said the goal remains to get to zero oil imports from Iran as quickly as possible and that teams are meeting with officials around the world to clarify US plans. The official said the administration is prepared to give waivers to countries on a case-by-case basis.\nAnother challenge will be that European Union nations, which account for about 20 percent of Iranian oil exports, are expected to be far less willing to acquiesce to the administration\u2019s demands. They have vowed to maintain the nuclear accord \u2014 and continue to deliver benefits that Iran gained from it \u2014 despite the US action.\nThe question is whether European oil companies will heed the demands of their governments given that many will face sanctions from the US if they do so. In July, Total SA Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne said it was \u2018impossible\u2019 for companies such as his to work in Iran.\nGauging the true volume of oil that comes off-the-books will ultimately be difficult because China stopped reporting imports by country in May.\n\u201cWe really aren\u2019t going to know,\u201d said Bob McNally, president and founder of Rapidan Energy Advisors LLC who forecasts a cut of about 600,000 barrels. \u201cThere\u2019s a big fog when it comes to China and India.\u201d\nThe November sanctions will follow penalties imposed this week, when the US moved to restrict the purchase of US dollar banknotes, trade in gold and sales of some metal products, among other goods.\n\n<\/p srcset=\"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/hj-300x168.jpg 300w, https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/hj.jpg 650w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2810,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[747,6],"tags":[28,56,642,27],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v15.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>US forecasts 50% cut in Iran oil sales, missing goal - madaresharghi | An Analytical Look at Middle Eastern Developments<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/us-forecasts-50-cut-in-iran-oil-sales-missing-goal\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US forecasts 50% cut in Iran oil sales, missing goal - madaresharghi | An Analytical Look at Middle Eastern Developments\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/us-forecasts-50-cut-in-iran-oil-sales-missing-goal\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"madaresharghi | An Analytical Look at Middle Eastern Developments\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-08-10T20:58:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2018-08-13T22:34:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/hj.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"650\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"365\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/\",\"name\":\"madaresharghi | An Analytical Look at Middle Eastern Developments\",\"description\":\"madaresharghi | An Analytical Look at Middle Eastern Developments\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":\"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/?s={search_term_string}\",\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/us-forecasts-50-cut-in-iran-oil-sales-missing-goal\/#primaryimage\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/hj.jpg\",\"width\":650,\"height\":365,\"caption\":\"us\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/us-forecasts-50-cut-in-iran-oil-sales-missing-goal\/#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/us-forecasts-50-cut-in-iran-oil-sales-missing-goal\/\",\"name\":\"US forecasts 50% cut in Iran oil sales, missing goal - madaresharghi | An Analytical Look at Middle Eastern Developments\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/us-forecasts-50-cut-in-iran-oil-sales-missing-goal\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2018-08-10T20:58:42+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-08-13T22:34:31+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/2af2959b42ca6c13e9db095c63e251ba\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/us-forecasts-50-cut-in-iran-oil-sales-missing-goal\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/2af2959b42ca6c13e9db095c63e251ba\",\"name\":\"\\u0627\\u0639\\u0638\\u0645 \\u0645\\u062d\\u0628\\u06cc\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/#personlogo\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/bd691f2af3ef79e0a585691926e43b64?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"\\u0627\\u0639\\u0638\\u0645 \\u0645\\u062d\\u0628\\u06cc\"},\"sameAs\":[\"http:\/\/madaresharghi.com\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2809"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2809"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2809\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2814,"href":"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2809\/revisions\/2814"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2810"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2809"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2809"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2809"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}