Cengiz Candar
\nThere’s a potential conflict looming for Turkey that hasn’t been getting the attention it deserves, especially as it would involve one of Ankara’s very few remaining regional partners: the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) of Iraq.<\/p>\n
Turkey’s statements about the KRG’s upcoming independence referendum vacillate slightly between criticisms and warnings, just short of outright rejection. KRG President Massoud Barzani is determined to hold the referendum Sept. 25.<\/p>\n
When Barzani announced his decision to ultimately pave the way for the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan on Turkey\u2019s southeastern border, the Turkish Foreign Ministry reacted June 9.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe have been conveying for some time Turkey\u2019s concerns about the independence referendum \u2026 to the government of Iraq and the KRG, as well as to the leading members of the international community. In this regard, we have been stressing that, at a time when critical developments are unfolding in the region, such a move would benefit neither the KRG nor Iraq and that it would have negative consequences which will cause further instability,\u201d the ministry’s statement said.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe see the KRG\u2019s decision to hold the independence referendum on Sept. 25, which runs counter to our advice and warnings, within the above-stated context and consider that it will be a grave mistake. Preserving Iraq\u2019s territorial integrity and political unity is one of the fundamental principles of Turkey\u2019s Iraq policy. \u2026 Furthermore, given the present extraordinary circumstances that the people of Iraq are in [in part because of the devastation of the war against the Islamic State], it is obvious that a referendum which will also include the disputed territories will be far from reflecting the will of the people,\u201d it added.<\/p>\n
Turkey does not want oil-rich Kirkuk province to be included in the Sept. 25 vote.<\/p>\n
Right after the foreign ministry released its statement, Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim spoke on the issue and went a bit further, labeling the planned referendum an \u201cirresponsible act.\u201d<\/p>\n
Kurdish authorities found Turkey’s stand lukewarm. KRG Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani, who champions extremely close relations with Turkey and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan\u2019s household, was quoted by Kurdish media as saying, \u201cI believe from what we have seen so far, the reactions of [various] countries are very normal.\u201d He continued, \u201cThere is nothing in [the Turkish statements] that could cause concerns.\u201d<\/p>\n
According to my Kurdish sources in the inner circle of the KRG decision-making process, negative comments by the Turkish side are for the benefit of Turkey’s domestic political scene. What they have heard from their Turkish colleagues privately on the referendum issue is quite different.<\/p>\n
Therefore, for the Kurds, there is supposedly no need to be concerned about Turkey’s reactions.<\/p>\n
However, Erdogan\u2019s statement and the words he chose have to be treated with the utmost importance, as his position overrides every institution and personality in today\u2019s Turkey. His remarks during a July 5 interview with TV channel France 24 do not support KRG officials\u2019 optimism on Turkey\u2019s ultimate position.<\/p>\n
The Turkish president unequivocally said that he does not see the referendum as the right step, and that he was directing his message to \u201cthe local administration in Northern Iraq.\u201d He said the administration would regret such action.<\/p>\n
\u201cBarzani and the Northern Iraqi local administration are not ready for such an initiative,\u201d he added. His most dramatic words in the interview were these: \u201cIf you take such a step, that means you have started dismembering [Iraq], and other similar moves will follow. Therefore, we do not see it as the right step.”<\/p>\n
Anybody familiar with Erdogan\u2019s speaking style should know that these phrases are quite tough \u2014 beyond a friendly warning. Tellingly, Erdogan was also belittling the KRG by saying \u201clocal administration\u201d rather than using Iraqi Kurdistan’s official name.<\/p>\n
Erdogan has consistently made it known that he doesn’t support even the autonomous Kurdish entity in Northern Iraq, fearing the same thing will happen in Syria.<\/p>\n
Turkey\u2019s military establishment, one of Erdogan\u2019s recent staunch domestic allies, is also known for its opposition to the autonomous Kurdish entity. Anti-Kurdish military hard-liners believe that \u201cNorthern Iraq\u201d sounds like a distinct region and that using the phrase could legitimize establishment of a sovereign authority other than Baghdad. About a decade ago, the hard-liners stopped using the phrase “Northern Iraq,” instead referring to the area as the \u201cnorth of Iraq\u201d to emphasize that the country is one territorially indivisible unit.<\/p>\n
Now they are doing so again. The phrase “north of Iraq” resurfaced July 17 in the communique of Turkey\u2019s National Security Council, an advisory body chaired by the president that brings together top military brass and the government.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is stated that the decision made by the regional administration of the north of Iraq cannot be implemented neither de jure nor de facto; that such an initiative is a grave mistake which would bear undesirable consequences,\u201d the official communique said.<\/p>\n
The last salvo against the referendum came from the Iraqi Turkmen Front, which is well known for its affiliation with Turkey, particularly with Turkish military intelligence. Speaking to Turkey\u2019s state-owned Anadolu Agency, Iraqi Turkmen Front leader Ershad Salihi said the upcoming referendum would lead to chaos.<\/p>\n
“Kurds will be those who will suffer the most after the referendum, which would only trigger the division of the country that has been struggling with various types of chaos, terrorism, conflict and problems for 10 years now,” Salihi said, adding that Kurds, who have gained a certain amount of autonomy since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein [in 2003], will suffer losses in political, economic and national areas.<\/p>\n
There is no doubt that Salihi’s statement reflected the outlook of Turkey\u2019s decision-makers on Iraqi and Kurdish issues.<\/p>\n
Despite the strong relationship gradually established, particularly since 2009, between Ankara and Erbil (the city Iraqi Kurds consider their capital), few people expect Turkish authorities to endorse or acquiesce to the Sept. 25 referendum on Kurdistan\u2019s independence. It will be interesting to see what happens next.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Cengiz Candar There’s a potential conflict looming for Turkey that hasn’t been getting the attention it deserves, especially as it would involve one of Ankara’s very few remaining regional partners: the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) of Iraq. Turkey’s statements about the KRG’s upcoming independence referendum vacillate slightly between criticisms and warnings, just short of outright […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[223,224,48,225,23],"yoast_head":"\n