{"id":2039,"date":"2017-12-02T21:06:23","date_gmt":"2017-12-02T22:06:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/madaresharghi.com\/mit-study-suggests-us-overstates-shale-forecasts\/"},"modified":"2017-12-02T21:06:23","modified_gmt":"2017-12-02T22:06:23","slug":"mit-study-suggests-us-overstates-shale-forecasts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/mit-study-suggests-us-overstates-shale-forecasts\/","title":{"rendered":"MIT Study Suggests US Overstates Shale Forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/madaresharghi..com\">madaresharghi<\/a><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p> \tTurns out, America\u2019s decade-long shale boom might just end up being a little too good to be true.<br \/> \tHydraulic fracturing, or fracking, has turned the US into a force in the global oil and gas markets, which has more than a few people abuzz about the prospect of energy independence, Bloomberg reported.<br \/> \tBut now, researchers at MIT have uncovered one potentially game-changing detail: a flaw in the Energy Department\u2019s official forecast, which may vastly overstate oil and gas production in the years to come.<br \/> \tThe culprit, they say, lies in the Energy Information Administration\u2019s premise that better technology has been behind nearly all the recent output gains and will continue to boost production for the foreseeable future.<br \/> \tThat is not quite right. Instead, the research suggests increases have been largely due to something more mundane: low energy prices, which led drillers to focus on sweet spots where oil and gas are easiest to extract.<br \/> \t\u201cThe EIA is assuming that productivity of individual wells will continue to rise as a result of improvements in technology,\u201d said Justin B. Montgomery, a researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and one of the study\u2019s authors.<br \/> \t\u201cThis compounds year after year, like interest, so the further out in the future the wells are drilled, the more that they are being overestimated.\u201d<br \/> \tExtrapolating from field studies Montgomery and his colleague Francis O\u2019Sullivan conducted in North Dakota\u2019s Bakken shale deposit, the research suggests that total US oil and natural-gas production from new wells could undershoot the EIA estimate by more than 10% in 2020.<br \/> \tThings would get progressively worse each year after that, as wells in various sweet spots are exhausted and technology fails to close the gap.<br \/> \t\u201cThe same forecasting methods are used in other plays in the US and the same dynamic is likely to be present,\u201d Montgomery added.<br \/> \tMargaret Coleman, the EIA\u2019s leader of oil, gas and biofuels exploration and production analysis, said in an email \u201cthe study raises valid points\u201d and the administration is looking at ways to give its estimates a tighter focus.<br \/> \tShe added that many shale fields lack the detailed well data that informed the MIT study, which means EIA forecasters have to use known geologic information and assumptions about prices and technology to come up with estimates.<br \/> \tThe MIT study also casts a long shadow over the claims of International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol that shale production will make the US the \u201cundisputed leader of global oil and gas markets for decades to come.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>madaresharghi Turns out, America\u2019s decade-long shale boom might just end up being a little too good to be true. Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, has turned the US into a force in the global oil and gas markets, which has more than a few people abuzz about the prospect of energy independence, Bloomberg reported. But now, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2,8],"tags":[296,118,28,31,159,639,178,56,213,84,95,82,68,22,23,27],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v15.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MIT Study Suggests US Overstates Shale Forecasts - madaresharghi | An Analytical Look at Middle Eastern Developments<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/madaresharghi.ir\/en\/mit-study-suggests-us-overstates-shale-forecasts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MIT Study Suggests US Overstates Shale Forecasts - madaresharghi | An Analytical Look at Middle Eastern Developments\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"madaresharghi Turns out, America\u2019s decade-long shale boom might just end up being a little too good to be true. Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, has turned the US into a force in the global oil and gas markets, which has more than a few people abuzz about the prospect of energy independence, Bloomberg reported. 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